Fwd:
Fascinating forecast. The future is a brilliant white light.
Fascinating forecast. The future is a brilliant white light.
A
baby of today will only see personal cars in museums.
baby of today will only see personal cars in museums.
“Buck
Rogers” of old was not as “Up-to-speed” as we are.
Rogers” of old was not as “Up-to-speed” as we are.
Great
stuff; read slowly.
stuff; read slowly.
1.
The FUTURE is approaching faster than one can handle!
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper
worldwide.
Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went
bankrupt.
The FUTURE is approaching faster than one can handle!
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper
worldwide.
Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went
bankrupt.
What
happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years
and, most people won't see it coming.
happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years
and, most people won't see it coming.
Did
you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on film
again?
you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on film
again?
Yet
digital cameras were invented in 1975.
digital cameras were invented in 1975.
The
first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore 's law.
first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore 's law.
So as
with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time,
with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time,
Before
it became way superior and became mainstream in only a few short
years.
it became way superior and became mainstream in only a few short
years.
It
will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial
Intelligence,
will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial
Intelligence,
health,
autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and
jobs.
autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and
jobs.
Welcome
to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential
Age.
2.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential
Age.
2.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
3.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest
taxi company in the world.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest
taxi company in the world.
4.
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own
any properties.
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own
any properties.
5.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in
understanding the world.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in
understanding the world.
This
year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than
expected.
year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than
expected.
6.
In the US , young lawyers already don't get jobs.
In the US , young lawyers already don't get jobs.
Because
of IBM's Watson, you can get legal advice (so far
for more or less basic stuff)
within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when
done by humans.
of IBM's Watson, you can get legal advice (so far
for more or less basic stuff)
within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when
done by humans.
So if
you study law, stop immediately.
you study law, stop immediately.
There
will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only omniscient specialists will
remain.
will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only omniscient specialists will
remain.
6A.
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, its 4 times more accurate than
human nurses.
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, its 4 times more accurate than
human nurses.
7.
Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces
better than humans.
Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces
better than humans.
In
2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
8.
Autonomous cars:
Autonomous cars:
In
2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public.
2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public.
Around
2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted.
2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted.
You
don't want to own a car anymore. You
will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive
you to your destination. You
will not need to park it you only pay for the driven distance and can be
productive while driving.
The very young children of today will never get a driver's license and will
never own a car.
don't want to own a car anymore. You
will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive
you to your destination. You
will not need to park it you only pay for the driven distance and can be
productive while driving.
The very young children of today will never get a driver's license and will
never own a car.
8A.
It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars
for that. We can transform former parking spaces into
parks.
It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars
for that. We can transform former parking spaces into
parks.
1.2
million people die each year in car accidents worldwide.
million people die each year in car accidents worldwide.
We
now have one accident every 60,000 mi (100,000 km), with autonomous
driving that will
now have one accident every 60,000 mi (100,000 km), with autonomous
driving that will
drop
to 1 accident in 6 million mi (10 million
to 1 accident in 6 million mi (10 million
km).
That will save a million lives worldwide each year.
That will save a million lives worldwide each year.
8B.
Most car companies will doubtless become bankrupt.
Most car companies will doubtless become bankrupt.
Traditional
car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while
tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach
and build a computer on wheels.
car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while
tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach
and build a computer on wheels.
8C.
Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.
Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.
9
Insurance companies will have massive trouble because, without accidents, the
insurance will become 100x cheaper.
Insurance companies will have massive trouble because, without accidents, the
insurance will become 100x cheaper.
Their
car insurance business model will disappear.
car insurance business model will disappear.
10.
Real estate will change.
Real estate will change.
Because
if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a
more beautiful neighborhood.
if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a
more beautiful neighborhood.
11.
Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020.
Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020.
Cities
will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.
will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.
12.
Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean:
Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can
now see the burgeoning impact.
Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean:
Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can
now see the burgeoning impact.
13.
Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.
Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.
Energy
companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent
competition from home solar installations, but that simply cannot continue -
technology will take care of that strategy.
companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent
competition from home solar installations, but that simply cannot continue -
technology will take care of that strategy.
14
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water.
Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents).
We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water.
Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he
wants, for nearly no cost.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water.
Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents).
We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water.
Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he
wants, for nearly no cost.
15.
Health:
The Tricorder X price will be announced this year.
There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder"
from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your
blood sample and you breath into it.
Health:
The Tricorder X price will be announced this year.
There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder"
from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your
blood sample and you breath into it.
16.
It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any
disease.
It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access
to world class
It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any
disease.
It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access
to world class
medical
analysis, nearly
for free. Goodbye,
self-serving medical practitioners and establishments.
analysis, nearly
for free. Goodbye,
self-serving medical practitioners and establishments.
17.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to
$400 within 10 years.
In the same time, it became 100 times faster.
All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to
$400 within 10 years.
In the same time, it became 100 times faster.
All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.
18.
Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports.
Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports.
The
space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount
of spare parts they used to have in
space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount
of spare parts they used to have in
the
past.
past.
19.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning
possibilities.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning
possibilities.
You
can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.
can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.
19A.
In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-story office
building.
By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-story office
building.
By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
20.
Business opportunities:
If you think of a niche you want to go in, first ask yourself: "In the future,
do I think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that
happen sooner?
Business opportunities:
If you think of a niche you want to go in, first ask yourself: "In the future,
do I think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that
happen sooner?
20A.
If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea.
If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea.
Any
idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st
century.
idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st
century.
20B.
Work : 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years.
There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough
new jobs in such a short time.
This will require a rethink on wealth distribution.
Work : 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years.
There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough
new jobs in such a short time.
This will require a rethink on wealth distribution.
21.
Agriculture : There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the
future.
Agriculture : There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the
future.
Farmers
in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of
working all day on their fields.
in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of
working all day on their fields.
22.
Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal,
is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018.
Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal,
is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018.
Right
now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows.
now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows.
Imagine
if we don't need that space anymore.
if we don't need that space anymore.
23.
There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the
There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the
market
shortly. It contains more protein than meat.
shortly. It contains more protein than meat.
It
will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still
reject the idea of eating insects).
will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still
reject the idea of eating insects).
24.
There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you’re
in.
There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you’re
in.
By
2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are
lying.
2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are
lying.
Imagine
a political debate where it's being displayed when they’re telling the truth
and when they’re
a political debate where it's being displayed when they’re telling the truth
and when they’re
not -
it will ultimately compel all politicians to be truthful (a truly unique &
novel occurrence).
it will ultimately compel all politicians to be truthful (a truly unique &
novel occurrence).
25.
BY 2020 (or sooner - some might suggest this is happening now)
BY 2020 (or sooner - some might suggest this is happening now)
WHAT
A UNIVERSITY STUDENT LEARNS IN THE FIRST YEAR OF A THREE YEAR DEGREE –
A UNIVERSITY STUDENT LEARNS IN THE FIRST YEAR OF A THREE YEAR DEGREE –
WILL
BE IRRELEVANT AND REDUNDANT BY THE TIME THE THIRD YEAR IS COMPLETED!
BE IRRELEVANT AND REDUNDANT BY THE TIME THE THIRD YEAR IS COMPLETED!
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