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'Values voters' are leaving Obama in droves
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In 2008, “values voters” contributed significantly to Barack Obama’s smashing victory. This year, the president has his hands full with religious-minded voters. And not only with Catholics, some of whom protested his decision to require Catholic institutions to insure contraceptives.
A new poll by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life shows Republicans gaining ground among all major religious groups. Catholics. White evangelicals. Mainline Protestants. Mormons. Jews.
The trend lines for white mainline Protestants and young evangelicals are particularly important. In a close election, which this one likely will be, they could bolster the GOP nominee.
Seemingly forever, white mainline Protestants were a pillar of the GOP. Methodists, Presbyterians, Episcopalians et al. formed the civic backbone of many American communities. Their ministers and theologians may have been more liberal, but most believers in the pews reliably voted Republican.
In 2008, candidate Obama scored a coup of sorts. White mainline Protestants showed an equal preference then for Democrats and Republicans. Now, white mainline Protestants favor Republicans by a 12-point margin.
Obama likewise wowed some evangelicals under age 30 in 2008. Most were Republican, but the Democrat appealed to some younger evangelicals who have a passion for social justice, racial equality and the environment.
Today, the story’s different. Young white evangelicals are trending Republican in a major way.
Those under age 30 are even more Republican than evangelicals over age 30. And we know how conservative those older evangelicals have been. Since the Reagan Revolution, they’ve reshaped the GOP.
Even Jewish voters have broken some from the Democratic Party. In 2008, 72 percent identified with Democrats. Today, 65 percent do. Not a game-changer, but the president cannot afford much leakage in the Democratic base.
So, what are we to make of these trends?
Some of this surely is related to the unease in the land. Jim Denison, a Southern Baptist minister, put it this way on The Dallas Morning News’Texas Faith blog:
“We’re afraid of the next terrorist attack and the possibility of war with Iran. We’re afraid for our financial future, with the recovery so fragile and so dependent on European stability. We’r e afraid for our culture, with immorality leading the news each day. To the degree that Americans view the Republican Party as representing strength in war, financial stability and moral certitude, they are more likely to support its candidates.”
That unease may be even more acute among voters whose faith shapes their politics. As Denison also wrote, “People of faith are perhaps more likely to be concerned about the moral trajectory of our nation, and therefore more likely to seek leaders who reflect their concerns and reflect their values.”
The improving economic news will allay some of the unease. But Obama strategists can hardly ignore these trends. If left unaddressed, they would hurt him in November.
Also, the White House already can hear a general-election theme taking shape. And that is that the president is at war against religion.
Rick Perry started it when he declared Obama was hostile to religion. Echoes of that charge were heard in a congressional hearing last week about the contraception flap. Baptist theologian Craig Mitchell told legislators that, “This mandate, in the name of health care, seems designed to offend those who have religiously informed moral sensibilities.”
The charge that the president is at war with religion is bogus. He’d have to be at war with himself. The president doesn’t appear a regular churchgoer, but he talks personally about his faith and meets with ministers, and theology oozes from his speeches about the common good.
But he opened the door for critics by requiring Catholic institutions to provide insurance that covers contraceptives. He backpedaled from that mandate, but the damage was done. He served up religious freedom as an issue for opponents.
How he handles the criticism will determine if he holds on to enough “values voters” to win a second term.
William McKenzie is an editorial columnist for The Dallas Morning News.
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